Estimating total and diagnosed global cancer incidence and stage distribution from 1990 to 2050: a simulation-based analysis of 17 cancers

The Lancet Oncology has published a simulation-based analysis estimating both total and diagnosed cancer incidence for 17 cancers worldwide from 1990 to 2050, together with stage distribution. The model combines demographic trends, epidemiological shifts and health system capacity; its central finding is that in low- and middle-income countries a substantial share of patients die without ever receiving a diagnosis. These are modelled values rather than measurements — the available abstract gives neither the numerical projections nor their uncertainty intervals, which must be taken from the full text.