Substantial increases in cervical cancer inequalities worldwide without enhanced human papillomavirus vaccination and screening efforts: a global modelling study

A global modelling study published in The Lancet projects that between-country differences in cervical cancer incidence and mortality will widen unless HPV vaccination and screening coverage is substantially increased. Under the model, meeting the WHO elimination targets for coverage and screening is a precondition for eliminating cervical cancer in low- and middle-income countries; without this the burden remains concentrated there. These are simulation results resting on assumptions about future programme coverage rather than observed data — their value lies in comparing scenarios, not in predicting specific case numbers.